In the week 11 rankings for the 2018 college football season, the AP Poll had UCF ranked #11, Utah State was #14, Fresno State was #16 and Cincinnati was #25. The AP Poll also had small conference teams UAB, San Diego State, Army, Buffalo, Boise State and Houston in others receiving votes. There is no formal split in Division 1 FBS football between the Power 5 and Group of 5 conferences, and the American Athletic Conference consistently claims the are one of the “Power 6” conferences, as Big East football was before it folded. The AAC, while probably being the 6th best conference in the FBS, is closer to the Mountain West than it is to any of the Power 5 conferences, and that’s why even an undefeated UCF team in a “Power 6” conference wasn’t even close to getting into the playoff last year, because no one outside of the AAC views it as a power conference. We can, and maybe should, debate which of these rankings are fair, or if both either overstate or understate the abilities of these Group of 5 schools, but what if we looked at Group of 5 schools separately? Today, and for the foreseeable future, I will be making a Power Ranking of the top 15 Group of 5 and independent (other than Notre Dame) teams. For these inaugural rankings, and potentially future first rankings of any season, I will discuss a team’s full “body of work” as the Playoff Committee would call it, and in later weeks merely talk about results/stats from that week and look at the upcoming week.
#1. UCF
Duh. Going with any team other than UCF in this spot wouldn’t make sense, seeing as how they have the longest current win streak in the FBS at 22 games dating back to 2017 if you include the conference championship and bowl games they played in last year. This includes a win over Auburn in the Sugar Bowl last year, and so far in 2018 they have only had one game be decided by single digits. Simply put, they’re dominating Group of 5 competition, and it’s a mere lack of strength of schedule keeping them from being actual championship contenders.
#2. Utah State
Utah State has a very impressive resume for a Group of 5 school. Their only loss came at Michigan State on opening weekend by 7. Since then, their closest game came in week 8 at Wyoming, where they won, 24-16. Playing in the Mountain West conference, and so far being undefeated in conference play, gives Utah State enough credit to get the #2 spot in these rankings. These Aggies, who may be having their best season since at least 1961 when they were ranked #10 by the final AP Poll, and Fresno State could be on the path for a thrilling Mountain West Championship Game.
#3. Fresno State
Every week Fresno State convinces me more and more that they’re for real. Their loss to Minnesota is definitely worse than Utah State’s loss to MSU, but the way they’ve been blowing teams out in Mountain West play has been impressive. If they can get through tough tests against Boise State and San Diego State these Bulldogs might just slip up to the 2 spot. For now, being the favorite to win the Mountain West gives them all the credit they need to be up here as one of the best.
#4. Cincinnati
Up until this past week I thought Cincy was likely to fade down the stretch but the way they handled Navy, holding their option attack down and shutting them out, coupled with USF’s loss to Tulane has given me more faith that the Bearcats will be able to handle the Bulls when they make their way to southern Ohio this upcoming week. If Cincy does win that game, then their game at UCF the next week will decide the AAC East. Barring a big upset of UCF, the Bearcats will likely be looking at a second place finish in the AAC East, which is probably the best division in the Group of 5.
#5. UAB
The Blazers dominated UTSA this week 52-3, following their third shutout of the season. Their loss to Coastal Carolina in early September still looks bad, but their defense has been pushing them through Conference USA competition, as they’re off to a 6-0 start in conference. They still have a road trip to Texas A&M on the schedule that they’re very unlikely to win but their stifling defense and the fact that they have the second best odds at winning their conference among Group of 5 schools (behind UCF) according to ESPN’s Football Power Index has them taking a nice spot near the top of these rankings.
#6. San Diego State
San Diego State will get the highest ranking among teams with multiple losses due in part to them playing two PAC 12 teams in out of conference play, both ranked when they played them, in Stanford and Arizona State. They actually managed to beat Arizona State to start a streak of 5 consecutive games that they won by 7 points or less before losing to Nevada in week 9. They bounced back this week in a win over New Mexico, keeping their hopes alive at winning the Mountain West. It’ll take a big upset over Fresno State in two weeks, a game they’re given just a 10% chance to win according to FPI, but where they sit right now allows them to be up here.
#7. Houston
Houston would have been much higher just last week, where I had been very impressed by their 57-36 handling of then-ranked USF. But their loss to SMU this week hurts a lot, as beforehand it looked like we may be able to pencil Houston into the AAC championship game as western division champs, but now they may have to win out to get there. In the loss, they were held scoreless in the first quarter for the first time all year, their 14 points in the first half tied a season low for points in a half, and their 31 for the game marked the first time this year that they failed to score 40 points. Their first loss of the year, a 63-49 shootout loss at Texas Tech, at least seemed to fit both teams’ styles and a loss at a decent Big 12 team isn’t bad for a Group of 5 team. They’ll have to earn their way back up and get a trip to the AAC championship game for this season to really be a success.
#8. Buffalo
Playing in the MAC, Buffalo hasn’t had many teams to have impressive wins against, but having played and won at Temple in out of conference action and having beat Toledo in MACtion, they have a solid resume even with a home loss to Army. Buffalo is the only MAC team to have less than 3 losses overall. In two weeks, they play at Ohio in what will be a battle for the MAC East. Buffalo has only ever won the MAC East twice, in 2007 and 2008, winning the conference championship in ’08. Buffalo may not be this good again for awhile, so fans of the Bulls should enjoy it while it lasts.
#9. Army
The first and only independent team in these rankings, Army’s losses at Duke and at Oklahoma are quality losses for a small conference team, and they have some wins that help boost a resume too. On top of winning at Buffalo, they’ve won at Eastern Michigan and beaten Hawaii. Coming off a win over air force, they have their next two games against FCS opponents before facing Navy in the traditional season finale. Army is currently given an 86% chance at beating Navy, and over 90% over both FCS teams, even with Colgate being ranked 11th in the FCS Coaches Poll, so it looks likely they’ll finish the year 10-2 with their only losses being at a bowl eligible ACC team and a ranked Big 12 team. Pretty good for a small conference team.
#10. Boise State
The fourth and final team with a chance at winning the Mountain West, Boise State has to play each of the other three this season. They’ve already lost at home against San Diego State, along with a loss at Oklahoma State in out of conference action. However, having won the other 7 of their 9 games so far including wins at Troy and Nevada has made it in total a pretty nice season for a Group of 5 team or, for Boise State, just another average season. They have remaining home games against Fresno State and Utah State and if they win those along with their game at New Mexico they’ll punch their ticket to the Mountain West Championship game.
#11. Appalachian State
App State received their first ranking in school history when they got to #25 in the week 9 AP Poll before losing at Georgia Southern. Before that, they had rattled off 5 wins, most in dominant fashion, after giving Penn State a huge scare in the season opener that people compared to their defeat of Michigan in 2008. The difference is back then they were an FCS team doing something that had never been done before, and now they’re developing into a potential powerhouse in the Sun Belt. They’ll need another Georgia Southern loss, but they can still win the Sun Belt East.
#12. Georgia Southern
Georgia State controls their own destiny in the Sun Belt. Just last week I would have considered them one of the top 5 small conference teams in the country, with their only loss being at Clemson and having just come off a win over Appalachian State putting them as the projected favorite in the Sun Belt. Then, they lost at UL-Monroe. Now they need to win out (probably) to win the Sun Belt East and get to the conference championship. Their biggest game left is this week when Troy comes to Statesboro and a win in that game would put Georgia Southern back in control of the Sun Belt East.
#13. Troy
Three straight Sun Belt East schools. And the lowest of the three is the one that’s undefeated in conference play. But there’s more to it than that, as Troy suffered losses at home against Boise State to open the season and at Liberty, a school in their transition year from FCS to FBS, a more embarrassing loss. They also have yet to play the Eagles or the Mountaineers, having to play both of them on the road with a home game against Texas State in between. The winner of their game against Georgia Southern is sure to move up in these rankings, and by the time the final week rolls around and they play App State we’ll have a much clearer idea of where these three teams belonged based on how those games go and who ends up on top of the Sun Belt East.
#14. South Florida
Undefeated and ranked just two weeks ago by the AP Poll in week 9, South Florida was having a great start to their season including wins over Georgia Tech and Illinois in out of conference play and people were wondering if they may get to their match-up with rival UCF on November 23rd unbeaten. A loss at Houston assured that wouldn’t happen, and then disaster struck this week getting blown out at home by the Green Wave of Tulane. Their season could end on a downward spiral as they’re best current chance at winning a game according to FPI is just 27.7% in two weeks at Temple. This week they’re at Cincinnati, who Luke Fickell has gotten back into the rankings for the third week this year, the first time since 2012 when they were in the dying Big East that they’ve been ranked. The Bulls need a miracle for this season to not have a crushing end to it.
#15. North Texas
The Mean Green come in just third in the Conference USA West but without a bad loss and with a 4-0 out of conference record including a win at Arkansas. Their losses have come at home against Louisiana Tech (#2 in CUSA West) and at UAB (CUSA West leaders). They’re given no less than a 79% chance to win each of their last 3 games (home vs Florida Atlantic being that toughest game according to FPI), so even though it’s too late for them to be able to win the CUSA, a potential 10-2 record would make for a pretty nice season. For a team that hasn’t been ranked since 1959, was demoted to the FCS from the early 80’s to the mid-90’s, they’re going to go to a bowl game for the third straight year, making this already their best run since winning 4 straight Sun Belt titles from 2001-04, and if Seth Littrell stays as head coach and keeps building on his success they may surpass the achievements of that early 2000’s team. After all, this is a team that has never* won 10 games in a season.
*NCAA adjusted their record in 1977 from 9-2-0 to 10-1-0 due to Mississippi State having to vacate their wins from that season due to having an ineligible player on their roster.
Bubble Teams:
Ohio, Northern Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee
Group of 5 Conference Championship Watch
American Athletic Conference
Conference USA
Mid-American Conference
Mountain West Conference
Sun Belt Conference
Future rankings will show previous week rankings and teams that dropped out. And for as much complaining as there is about divisional imbalance in major conferences, just look at the Sun Belt. The East division has 3 good teams, and the West division might only get one team bowl eligible. I think the Sun Belt can officially say they have the least balanced divisions in the FBS, so the Big Ten and ACC can deal with it. Until next time,
CM
Stats and info courtesy of ESPN and Sports-reference.com
Murphy's Field 