Last week saw a few major games between teams vying for places among the top of the group of 5 conferences, the biggest probably being the Friday night game between Fresno State and Boise State. Between that game, Troy winning at Georgia Southern, Cincinnati taking down USF, and some upsets, we have some adjustments to make for this week’s rankings. This week we will be adding a previous week ranking as well as having teams that dropped out of the rankings, and the info about teams will mostly focus on recent events instead of all season as last weeks ranking, which you can view here talks more about the season as a whole.
#1. UCF (Previous Week Ranking: 1)
UCF took care of business this week, beating Navy 35-24. Not much more has to be said for why UCF should be #1 unless they lose. McKenzie Milton was an efficient 17-21 passing, while Navy didn’t complete a pass. For most teams this would be a shocking statistic, but Navy threw the ball just 2 times, as Navy does. They may be all but ineligible for the playoff simply by being in a small conference, but you don’t need to be national champs to be #1 here.
#2. Utah State (2)
Utah State got to host San Jose State this week, who lost to UC Davis to start the season, has one win to their name, and hasn’t been competitive in most of their games. The Aggies didn’t mess up, winning 62-24. Jordan Love threw for 492 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the defense forced 3 turnovers while the offense had none. Not much of a statement can be made in beating a bad team, but Utah State avoided playing down to their competition and moved one step closer to the Mountain West Championship Game.
#3. Cincinnati (4)
Cincinnati is coming off of a nice win over USF, who’s falling fast in these rankings and will probably be gone soon, but this team is having a very impressive season this year and deserves the respect that the AP Poll is finally showing them, as they’re up to 19 this week. Michael Warren II put up 151 rush yards and 3 touchdowns as the Bearcats overcame giving up two fumbles without forcing a turnover to beat USF 35-23. I’ve yet to see a betting line on Cincinnati’s upcoming game at UCF, but ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them about a 30% chance to win. If Cincy pulls that upset, they would be most likely in a 3 way tie for the AAC East division with UCF and Temple, and a Temple loss combined with a win over ECU in the season finale would put them in the AAC Championship Game.
#4. UAB (5)
UAB barely survived a scare from Southern Miss this week, winning 26-23 in overtime, overcoming 3 interceptions and a missed field goal in regulation. To be fair, the missed field goal was a 54-yarder, but they were very fortunate that their third interception, which resulted in Southern Miss getting the ball at the UAB 36 yard line with 16 seconds left, didn’t cost them the game. The win clinched them a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game, which will be the first in school history, and they’ll be playing in just their third bowl game at the end of this season. Their ninth win ties a school record, and the last time they did it they were in 1-AA (now FCS) football.
#5. Boise State (10)
Boise State managed to take down Fresno State on Friday night to earn the #23 spot in this week’s AP Poll and a big jump in these rankings. After missed opportunities plagued their offense in the first half (missed 50 yard field goal, failed 4th and 3 from Fresno State 12, interception at Fresno State 26) they were fortunate to only trail 10-3 at halftime as Fresno State missed a field goal as well, and Boise State would find the end zone on the first three drives of the second half, and a big third down sack as Fresno State was at Boise’s 23 yard line with about a minute and a half left helped seal the 24-17 win, setting up a showdown on November 24th back in Boise against Utah State in what will likely decide the Mountain West Mountain division, provided the Broncos beat New Mexico this week, a game FPI gives them a 90.7% chance to win.
#6. Fresno State (3)
The loss at Boise State this week hurts, but doesn’t kill the Bulldogs, who still are just one win away from clinching their spot in the Mountain West Championship Game. They hadn’t had a game within 18 points since they lost to Minnesota in September, but they failed to capitalize on Boise State’s mistakes and couldn’t come away with the win. Still, a win over San Diego State this week (they’re given a 91.3% chance by FPI) will make them Mountain West West division champions. After that, they have what should be a very easy game against San Jose State before the Mountain West Championship. Interesting note: Fresno State has played in the championship game 3 times in the 5 years it has existed, beating Utah State in the inaugural game and losing to Boise State twice.
#7. Buffalo (8)
Buffalo put a beat down on Kent State this week, winning 48-14, and that wasn’t even the best thing that happened for them this week. That honor would go to Ohio getting upset by Miami of Ohio, meaning that Buffalo could lose to Ohio this week and still win the MAC East, something they haven’t done in a decade. They’re given just a 37.6% chance at beating the Bobcats this week according to FPI, but Miami was given a 37.8% chance going into the game last week and got the job done. Even if they do lose to Ohio, the Bulls are given about an 88% chance at beating Bowling Green to close the season, and they only need one more win to punch their ticket to Ford Field for the MAC Championship.
#8. Army (9)
Not much to say about Army this week, as they don’t have any conference standings to update, they just beat an FCS team, and have another game against FCS competition coming up this week. Army didn’t look particularly impressive in the 31-13 win over Lafayette College, but a nice sign from the game was Kelvin Hopkins Jr. completing 5 of his 6 passes for 95 yards on the day. For a team who doesn’t throw the ball hardly at all, their passing has to be effective when they do it to at least make the opposing defense think about it.
#9. Troy (13)
Troy has very quietly won every one of their Sun Belt games so far, and in two weeks time they’ll go to Appalachian State for a game that will almost definitely decide the Sun Belt East. Troy is only given a 21.7% shot to win that game (FPI) or else they’d be a little higher on this list, but the way they showed resilience after falling behind 14-3 in the first quarter against Georgia Southern this week, I wouldn’t count them out just yet. They also showed some trickery in that game, completing 2 wide receiver passes on the same drive, one on a 4th and 2, that set up their first touchdown of the game and started the comeback. Winning 35-21 in a key conference game earns them a move up here.
#10. Appalachian State (11)
A week after the only score they allowed Coastal Carolina was a pick-six, the defense was once again stifling for Appalachian State, as they held Texas State to just 7 points and forced 3 turnovers. The offense held onto the football better than last week, and they showed why they were such a heavy favorite as they won 38-7, dominating the game in every category. Quarterback Zac Thomas accounted for 323 yards of total offense and 2 touchdowns. Texas State had 218 yards of total offense and one touchdown.
#11. Houston (7)
Oh boy. After a loss to Temple, Houston no longer controls its own destiny in the American West division. SMU now does, and Memphis even has a chance to sneak in as they’re currently favored over SMU and Houston in their last 2 games. Houston needs to stop this tailspin this week against Tulane and regroup before their game at Memphis, as they will almost definitely need to win both to reach the AAC Championship Game. Their offense got back on track, as D’Eriq King threw for 322 and 5 touchdowns, but the defense gave up 59 points to waste that effort.
#12. Northern Illinois (On The Bubble)
The favorites to win the MAC, Northern Illinois had a rough out of conference schedule, losing at Iowa, vs Utah, and at Florida State. They’ve won their last six games to get to a 7-3 record, 6-0 in conference. This past week, beating Toledo 38-15 puts them a win or Western Michigan loss away from winning the MAC west. Running back Tre Harbison has a good shot at getting to 1,000 yards rushing for the year, and their defense has been good enough to get them by. The Huskies have been one of the best teams in the MAC for years, so this success is nothing new to them.
#13. San Diego State (6)
A bad loss as they collapsed in the 4th quarter against UNLV has all but ended San Diego State’s chances in the Mountain West. Another tough test against Fresno State this week will likely knock them out of these rankings. It appears I was a bit too impressed with San Diego State, and they’re proving me wrong, having lost 2 of their last three with their toughest game still ahead of them. If they do pull the upset of Fresno State, however, they will be a Nevada loss away from a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game.
#14. Louisiana Tech (OTB)
Coming in at 7-3, 5-1 in the CUSA, Louisiana Tech is having a very nice season even though UAB just clinched their division. Their only losses are at LSU, vs UAB, and at Mississippi State. They don’t have any great wins, but no bad losses and a good overall record is better than most teams can say. They have found a nice balance on offense and their defense always seems to make just enough plays for them to win.
#15. Florida International (NR)
Florida International gets the final spot as they control their own destiny in the East division of the CUSA. They had out of conference losses vs Indiana to open the season and at Miami in late September. They had won 4 games in a row before being dominated by rival Florida Atlantic 2 weeks ago, but rebounded to smack around UTSA 45-7 as quarterback James Morgan threw for three touchdowns, bringing his season total up to 24, breaking the old school record of 21 for a single season. Morgan is having a very nice year, completing 64% of his passes for 2282 yards thus far. With two games to go, they have a good shot at a match-up against UAB in the CUSA Championship Game.
Dropped Out:
Georgia Southern (12), South Florida (14), North Texas (15)
Bubble Teams:
Middle Tennessee, Temple, South Florida, Marshall, Memphis
Group of 5 Conference Championship Watch
American Athletic Conference
Conference USA
Mid-American Conference
Mountain West Conference
Sun Belt Conference
As the conference championship races grow clearer, things aren’t getting any less wild. Looking forward to a fun last few weeks of the season. Until next time,
CM
Stats and Info courtesy of ESPN
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