Rivalry week has come and gone, and while the major conferences worry about what the playoff implications are with Washington beating Washington State and Ohio State beating Michigan and breaking records along the way, along with trying to figure out how to recap a 7-overtime game that tied the most overtimes in FBS history and broke the record for total points scored as Texas A&M beat LSU 74-72 in, yes, football, not basketball, we dive into what last week’s results meant for some of the smaller conferences and their teams, of which all but one isn’t worried about playoff implications. We will also be previewing the conference championships after we get through the rankings, and to see last weeks ranking, click here.

#1. UCF (Last Week: 1)

The win in the rivalry game over USF came at a cost, being Mckenzie Milton. They’ll need to rely on backup QB Darriel Mack JR and the run game when they take on Memphis for the AAC championship this week. There may still be some slim chance of UCF getting in to the playoff, though we’ll have to see where the committee ranks them compared to Michigan, Texas, and Washington, and they would need upsets in the Big 10 and Big 12 championships, but maybe. They played impressively against USF especially after Milton went down in the second quarter, as their defense stepped up big time in the 38-10 win. Mack had just 5 completions in 14 attempts, but ran for 51 yards, as running back Greg McCrae ran for 181 and 3 touchdowns. They’ll need another big performance from him if they want to beat Memphis and earn their second straight AAC title.

#2. Boise State (3)

Boise State picks up a huge win over Utah State this week to earn a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game, which they will host. Brett Rypien had a nice game, throwing for 310 yards and a touchdown, but Alexander Mattison was the real star for the Broncos, rushing for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kekaula Kaniho had an interception in the first quarter setting up Boise State’s first touchdown, and the Broncos never trailed after the first quarter en route to a 33-24 win. It will be the Broncos’ third appearance in the Mountain West Championship, their third time hosting the game, and the third against Fresno State. They won each of the first two and beat Fresno State earlier this season.

#3. Cincinnati (4)

The highest ranked team to not be playing a conference championship game next week, Cincinnati is wrapping up their best season since back when they were in the Big East, and after back to back 4-8 seasons, Luke Fickell has the Bearcats back on track. A bowl win would give Cincy 11 wins for the first time since 2009, when they went 12-0 before losing to Florida in the Sitrus Bowl, and would likely end with them being ranked the highest they have been since then, as they were 25 in the 2011 final AP Poll. If UCF ever stops dominating the AAC, maybe Cincinnati will get to show why they’re one of the best small conference teams in the country too.

#4. Fresno State (6)

The offense struggled in the first half, not scoring until a field goal as the 2nd quarter expired, as they may have been overlooking San Jose State looking ahead to the Mountain West Championship Game. Fortunately, their defense didn’t allow the Spartans to score until the 4th quarter, and got a 95-yard pick six from Arron Mosby, and the Bulldogs cruised to a 31-13 victory. The win gives them 10 for the second straight season after a disappointing final few years of Tim DeRuyter’s tenure as head coach. They’ll head to Boise next week for the Mountain West Championship game, which will be their 4th appearance and third against Boise. They’re 1-2 in their first 3 championship games.

#5. Utah State (2)

The loss to Boise State ends Utah State’s chances at getting to the Mountain West Championship game for the first time since 2013 and their chance at getting just their second conference championship this century (they won the WAC in 2012). Still, it was a great season for the Aggies, as they were ranked for just the second time since 1961. This comes after 3 straight losing seasons, and a bowl win would be their first since 2014 and would give them 11 wins for the first time since 2012, when they won the WAC championship and finished the year ranked 16th by the AP Poll. Jordan Love threw for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns in the loss, which snapped a 10-game winning streak which was the longest in school history.

#6. Appalachian State (8)

Appalachian State got their biggest win of the year when they beat Troy this week to win the Sun Belt East division. With the win, the Mountaineers will host the first ever Sun Belt Championship Game. Getting their 10th win marks the 3rd time in 4 seasons since they finished their transition to FBS and were bowl eligible. App State is having success unseen by any other team transitioning up from FCS, which makes you wonder how and if they’ll move up to a better conference soon. They’ll be looking for their second outright championship in the last three years, and haven’t finished lower than second in the Sun Belt in their 4 years of bowl eligibility. I’m not sure how much buzz their is about head coach Scott Satterfield going to a bigger program, but Appalachian State can at least hope a loyalty to his alma mater may keep him around.

#7. Army (7)

All Army has left this season is their traditional game against Navy, scheduled for the week after conference championship week in case the Midshipmen were to be in the AAC Championship Game, as well as providing the rivalry with being the only football game in America being played that day. A win over Navy or in their bowl game will give them 10 wins on the season, which would mark the second consecutive year of 10 wins and just the third in team history, with the other being in 1996. It is worth noting that they were 9-0 5 times, including winning back-to-back National Championships in 1944-45, with the latest 9-0 season being in 1949. College football was a lot different back then, with World War II especially being a large factor in the Armed Forces Academy and Navel Academy’s teams being particularly successful in the mid-40’s.

#8. Buffalo (11)

The Bulls recovered after their humiliating loss at Ohio two weeks ago by blowing out the mess that is Bowling Green to earn their spot in the MAC Championship Game this Friday night in Detroit. The win gives them 10 on the year for the first time in school history, and puts them in their first MAC championship since 2008 and third ever. They ran for 332 yards as a team in their win over Bowling Green, as 4 different rushers got over 50 yards for them in the game, including Emmanuel Reed going for 109 and Jarrett Patterson and Kevin Marks both rushing for 2 touchdowns. They’ll face Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game, who’s 7-5 record coupled with the fact that they’ve been outscored on the year make for a very unimpressive resume.

#9. Memphis (13)

Memphis got a huge win over Houston, their 4th straight after going 1-3 in their first 4 games in conference. They were helped by the fact that Houston was without starting quarterback D’Eriq King and Ed Oliver was unable to play in the second half as his knee continued to bother him. They trailed at halftime, 21-17 with Oliver in the game before scoring 35 points in the second half to win 52-31 and win the AAC West for the second consecutive year. Memphis ran for 401 yards, including Junior running back Darrell Henderson rushing for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns, bringing his total rushing yards on the season to 1699, breaking the American Conference record. Beating UCF is a major challenge, but Memphis took them to double overtime in last year’s AAC Championship Game and lost by a single point earlier this year when UCF came to Memphis.

#10. UAB (5)

UAB had already clinched their spot in the Conference USA Championship Game, and came out flat against Middle Tennessee as the Blue Raiders needed the win to get to the championship. The Blazers totaled just 89 yards of total offence in the game, losing 27-3. The loss for UAB means they will have a rematch with Middle Tennessee, also in Murfreesboro, next week for the CUSA title. The Blazers had -1 rush yard on the game, as they allowed 7 sacks to the aggressive defense of Middle Tennessee. The offensive line will have to play much better, and the offense being more productive will help keep their defense off the field and return to their dominant form, as they have 3 shutouts on the season and have held their opponents under 10 points 6 times this season.

#11. Temple (12)

Temple wrapped up their regular season by beating former Big East foe UConn 57-7, about the only way to play impressively against the lowly Huskies. The end of the regular season saw those Huskies set records for most yards, yards per game, points, and points per game allowed in a season by an FBS team in NCAA history. The defense forced 4 turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown by Christian Braswell, and Isaiah Wright returned the kickoff following UConn’s only score 99 yards for a touchdown. The Owls could have scored even more on the hapless Huskies if they had managed to score touchdowns on the 3 different drives that they kicked field goals from inside the 10-yard line. Temple will have an above .500 season for the 4th consecutive year, the first time they’ve had a streak of that length since they had 5 consecutive winning seasons from 1971-75.

#12. Marshall (15)

Marshall beat FIU to prevent them from winning the CUSA East as they got out to a 14-0 lead early and FIU never quite could get the lead. Big plays on defense and special teams spurred the Thundering Herd to the win, as Omari Cobb had a 25-yard pick six in the first quarter and after the Golden Panthers had closed the gap to 14-10 by halftime, a blocked field goal kept FIU from drawing to within one, and late in the third quarter Brandon Drayton blocked a punt and recovered it in the end zone to put Marshall’s lead back to 11. The game was full of miscues, as both teams threw 2 interceptions, and in the second quarter both teams missed field goals of under 30 yards. The win gives Marshall 8 on the year for the 5th time in the past 6 years. They’ll try to win their fifth bowl game in the same time this December, which would be their seventh consecutive bowl win if they get it.

#13. Middle Tennessee (On the Bubble)

Finally out of being trapped on the bubble, Middle Tennessee cracks these rankings after a big win over UAB to get them into the CUSA Championship Game. The Blue Raiders have suffered 3 road losses to bowl-eligible SEC teams this year, as well as losing on the road to FIU as their only loss in conference. They went 5-0 at home, however, a good omen considering that since they beat UAB they will now host them in the title game. This will mark the first time Middle Tennessee has played in a conference championship game, being well deserved as the Blue Raiders have finished no worse than 6-6 since joining the Conference USA in 2013. Coach Rick Stockstill will watch his son, Brent, attempt to hit 3000 yards passing on the season in the championship game, as Stockstill has thrown for 2852 so far this year.

#14. Troy (9)

Troy was so close to winning the Sun Belt East and getting to the inaugural Sun Belt Championship Game, but they ran into App State, a team on the verge of becoming a small conference powerhouse. Still, the Trojans have the opportunity to win 10 games for the third year in school history and consecutively with a bowl game victory, which would also be three years in a row (and would be the 5th in school history). After winning no fewer than 8 games from 2006-2010, Troy hit a rough stretch until they hired Neal Brown as head coach and, after going 4-8 in his first year in 2015, went a combined 21-5 in 2016-17, were ranked for the first time in program history when they were 25 in the week 12 AP Poll in 2016, and finish the regular season 9-3 this year.

#15. Houston (10)

The good news for Houston is they went 8-0 when giving up fewer than 45 points this year. The bad news is that Friday marked the 4th time this season that they’ve given up at least 45, all losses. That’s why the Cougars fired defensive coordinator Mark D’Onofrio yesterday. Clayton Tune wasn’t great in his first career start, but did throw for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns. The negatives were that he only completed 18 of 43 passes, an interception, and a fumble. One good game from a defender for the Cougars was Gleson Sprewell. He had 9 tackles, 2 interceptions, and returned one of them for a touchdown. Sprewell had no INT’s through Houston’s first 10 games, but now has 3 in their last two games. The Sophomore might be gaining experience, exposure, and may be in line for an improved Junior year.

 

Dropped Out:

Florida International (14)

Bubble Teams:

Ohio, North Texas, Georgia Southern, Florida International

 

Conference Championship Game Previews

American Athletic Conference

The AAC Championship Game will see Memphis travel to UCF in Orlando this Saturday, December 1st, at 3:30 PM ET. Last year’s AAC Championship Game: Memphis played UCF in Orlando. And it was a great game, went to double overtime, and UCF only beat Memphis by a single point earlier this year. That, coupled with the fact that UCF will unfortunately be without QB McKenzie Milton as he recovers from his knee injury and subsequent surgery, makes it look like we’re headed for a good game, and that Memphis might be the team that has UCF’s number and can beat them. However, I would caution looking at last season to make predictions about this year. The way roster turnover happens so fast in college athletics, as well as UCF having a different head coach than they did last year makes comparisons like that not so simple. The game they played earlier this year is much more significant. That game was 30-14 Memphis late in the second quarter, but UCF would score the game’s last 17 points as weather also slowed both teams offenses in the second half. So clearly Memphis had something figured out about the Knights, but they found a way to counter the Tigers’ success. Another thing to consider is the wide gap in how Memphis played at home vs on the road this year. The loss to UCF was their only loss in 7 games at home, including the big win this past week vs Houston. The Tigers went just 2-3 on the road this year, losing to a 3-9 Navy team, losing by 16 at 6-6 Tulane, and giving up 65 points to Missouri, who’s second highest scoring game this season was 51 vs Tennessee-Martin. Memphis simply hasn’t been good on the road this year, and that doesn’t bode well for now playing on the road against a top-10 ranked team, even if they are without their starting quarterback.

 

Conference USA

The Conference USA Championship Game will be UAB at Middle Tennessee State in Murfreesboro this Saturday, December 1st, at 1:30 PM ET. Last year’s CUSA Championship Game: Florida Atlantic beat North Texas. The day after this game is played, December 2nd, will mark 4 years since UAB announced they were shutting down the football program. After having been to a single bowl game in 2004, the team had struggled to be any better than a middle of the pack CUSA team. It took less than a year for the university to announce that the football program would be reinstated, and in 2017 they resumed play, won 7 games tying the most wins at the FBS level in school history, and played in their second ever bowl game. Now, just two years into the resumed program, they’ve broken the school record for wins and are playing in their first conference championship game ever. Middle Tennessee State has also never played in a conference championship game. So, in a battle of firsts, who has the advantage? It’s tempting to simply say that this past week the Blue Raiders won 27-3 over UAB, so they should win this week as well. However, knowing how much emotion affects college football, it’s important to note that UAB was already guaranteed a spot in the CUSA Championship Game, while Middle Tennessee needed the win to punch their ticket. Another important note: both teams were undefeated at home this season, and Middle Tennessee will have home field advantage in the title game. The teams have put up very similar numbers on offense, with Middle Tennessee being better through the air with coach’s son Brent Stockstill at QB while the Blazers do it more with their run game, but UAB’s defense has been better in points allowed, pass and rush yards this season.

 

Mid-American Conference

The MAC Championship Game will feature Northern Illinois and Buffalo playing in Detroit this Friday, November 30th, at 7:00 PM ET. Last year’s MAC Championship Game: Toledo beat Akron. Northern Illinois is returning to the MAC championship after playing in 6 straight title games from 2010-15, while Buffalo is making their first appearance since 2008 and their second overall. This year, the Bulls of Buffalo are 10-2 on the year, already their most wins in a season in school history, while the Huskies had a 7-5 record as they played 3 power 5 conference schools out of conference (Buffalo played just one, and it was Rutgers) and then lost their last 2 games after clinching their birth in the championship game. These two teams do not have a head-to-head game this season (the only group of 5 championship without one) to look at, so we’ll have to rely more on statistical comparisons. First of all, Buffalo has averaged an 11-point margin of victory in their games this year, while Northern Illinois has been outscored by a point per game, though that is due in part to Northern Illinois having a bit of a more difficult schedule. While the two team’s defenses were very close in total yardage allowed (NIU 344.0 yards/game, UB 344.9) with the Huskies doing a better job against the run while the Bulls stopped opponents passing attacks better, Buffalo’s offense averaged about 100 more yards and just over 15 more points per game. Being a Western Michigan student, I saw Northern Illinois first-hand this week when NIU faced the Broncos, and I was left unimpressed by their offense that managed to score just under 20 points per game this season and scored 21 against a Western Michigan team who had just fired their defensive coordinator.

 

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West Conference Championship Game will have Fresno State playing at Boise State in Boise this Saturday, December 1st, at 7:45 PM ET. Last year’s Mountain West Championship Game: Fresno State at Boise State. Boise State won last years match-up between the two teams that have undoubtedly been the best in the Mountain West since TCU left for the Big 12, as well as winning the title game in 2014 when they also hosted the Bulldogs. Earlier this year, Fresno State traveled to Boise and suffered their only loss in conference as the Broncos beat them, 24-17. Brett Rypien and Alexander Mattison came up big for Boise in that game, as they have all year, and Fresno State will likely need to contain at least one of them in order to get out of Boise with a win. On the other side, Boise State needs to find a way to keep Fresno State’s just as high-powered offense in check, and that starts with stopping KeeSean Johnson, who has 87 catches for over 1200 yards this season. The first time these two teams played, Johnson had 8 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. The first contest between these teams saw 3 total missed field goals, 2 by Fresno State, as well as Boise State having a pass to the end zone from Fresno’s 26 yard line get intercepted. The defenses didn’t so much shut down each other’s offense, they merely kept them out of the end zone and both teams had some key offensive mistakes on good drives. This is the only small conference championship game with both teams ranked, and the winner would be the beneficiary of the group of 5 spot in a New Year’s 6 bowl game if UCF were to lose.

 

Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game will pit Louisiana against Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina, this Saturday, December 1st at noon ET. This is the first ever Sun Belt Championship Game. When these teams played each other earlier this year, also with Appalachian State hosting, the Mountaineers won, 27-17. Add in the fact that App State is 9-2 while Louisiana is 7-5 and Louisiana looks like they’re in trouble. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ best win this year was either at UL Monroe this week or vs Arkansas State, and they won those games by a combined 7 points. Appalachian State’s closest win was actually over Louisiana, and that game wasn’t as close as the final score. The Mountaineers led, 27-10 with 2:46 to play and then the Ragin’ Cajuns drove down the field and scored a meaningless touchdown with about a minute left in the game. Louisiana has been outscored by their opponents this year, while Appalachian State has averaged a +22 scoring margin in their games. The Sun Belt East was a clearly superior division to the West this year, as Appalachian State, Troy, and Georgia Southern were probably the best three teams in the conference, all in the East. Louisiana has a lot less defensive talent than the Mountaineers, and that will likely cost them in the end.

 

Next week we’ll look ahead at each ranked team’s bowl game, and we’ll recap the group of 5 conference championships. I’m looking forward to a fun final week of football before the gap to bowl season, and I’m interested in how close (or how far off) my predictions are, as it’s my first time making a strong prediction on games. Until next time,

CM

Stats and info courtesy of ESPN and sports-reference.com