One last huge weekend in College Football is over. We now know who’s going to the playoff, and the full bowl game layout. With the conference championships over, we’ll briefly touch on one or two key figures for each team and look ahead at their bowl game. Below the rankings, we’ll recap the group of 5 conference championship games, and to be fair I’ll say that I didn’t get to watch any of the games all the way through, but that I saw parts of the MAC and AAC championships. Fortunately, in this modern era we can find extremely accurate play-by-play data and be able to give a decent recap of a game we didn’t watch. To view last weeks rankings with my predictions for these championship games, click here.

#1 UCF (Last week: 1)

UCF goes undefeated for the second straight season after beating Memphis in the AAC championship and will head to the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl as the highest ranked group of 5 team to play LSU on New Year’s Day. The game could end up being decided by how much LSU really cares about the game, as there’s no doubt the Tigers have the more talented roster, but UCF proved in their win over Auburn in last year’s peach bowl that sometimes that doesn’t matter. They’ll continue to have to rely on Darriel Mack JR for the Fiesta Bowl, but the offense picked up after a slow start and they proved they can still throw the ball effectively with him under center. They’ll go into the Fiesta Bowl as an underdog, but if LSU has players who leave early for the draft and/or don’t put as much effort into preparation for the game, UCF can get bowl wins over ranked SEC teams in two consecutive years.

#2. Fresno State (4)

Fresno State wins their second Mountain West Championship since the championship game started after beating Boise State in overtime. Winning the Mountain West puts them in the Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State on December 15th. The Las Vegas Bowl looks to be a battle between Fresno’s passing attack and ASU’s ground game, with the Bulldogs looking to get star wideout KeeSean Johnson the ball early and often, while they’ll have to slow down the Sun Devil’s sophomore running back Eno Benjamin, who rushed for 1524 yards and 15 touchdowns on the year. It’s worth noting that Fresno State’s defense fared far better than ASU’s, albeit facing teams like San Jose State, New Mexico, and UNLV, a far cry from teams like Washington, Stanford, Utah and Oregon that the Sun Devils had to play. Fresno’s offense should fare just fine, but will need their defense to step up against one of the better offenses they’ve seen if they want to get a bowl win for the second year in a row.

#3. Boise State (2)

Boise State will be heading to Dallas to take on Boston College in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl on December 26th after falling just short of winning the Mountain West. The Broncos will need to shake off the common bowl slump among conference championship game losers to beat the reeling Eagles, who started 7-2 before losing their last 3, as their offense failed to put up more than 21 points in those 3 losses after scoring less than 23 just once in their first 9 games. Combine that with the fact that Bowling Green hired BC’s offensive coordinator, and the Broncos may just be able to stifle the Eagles’ offense. Assuming the offense does better than they did against Fresno State (13 points in regulation), the Broncos can send QB Brett Rypien and his fellow seniors off with a third bowl win in 4 years, and end the year ranked for the second year in a row.

#4. Cincinnati (3)

Cincinnati will take on Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman on New Year’s Eve. The Bearcats will look to get their running game, which was good for 238.1 yards per game in the regular season, going against the Hokies, who needed to add a game conference championship weekend to get bowl eligible after having a game get cancelled earlier in the year due to a hurricane. It looks like that shouldn’t be too much trouble to get there, as VT’s defense gave up 206 yards per game on the ground and 30.7 points per game on the year. If dual-threat freshman QB Desmond Ridder is able to get something going, and they can keep the Kansas transfer Ryan Willis from getting comfortable in the pocket, Cincy should be able to beat the confusing Hokies, who had road wins over then-ranked Florida State and Duke, but also lost to Old Dominion.

#5. Appalachian State (6)

The Mountaineers won the first ever Sun Belt Championship Game to earn their spot in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl against Middle Tennessee on December 15th. App State and their smashmouth running game and hard defensive style will go into the New Orleans Bowl as the favorite, but they’ll need to slow the Blue Raiders’ passing attack led by senior QB Brent Stockstill that’s better than you normally see in the Sun Belt. If QB Zac Thomas (28 total TD’s in the regular season) can get the offense going, then they’re running game that averaged over 5 yards per carry as a team should help them keep MTSU’s offense off the field. The more time their defense has to rest, the more likely they are to be able to get pressure on Stockstill and the better the DB’s should be able to stick to their receivers. If App State can control the line of scrimmage and win time of possession, they should be able to come away with their 4th bowl win in 4 years of eligibility, and give them 11 wins on the year for the second time since their transition to FBS play.

#6. Utah State (5)

Utah State will be playing North Texas in the New Mexico bowl on December 15th looking for their 2nd 11-win season in school history. They’ll be playing sort of without their coach Matt Wells, who has been hired by Texas Tech and will help with practice and be on the sideline at the game, but not coaching during the game. The game looks to be an aerial assault, with both quarterbacks having thrown for over 3000 yards on the season. Utah State ran the football better than the Mean Green, but UNT defended the run better than the Aggies. For an offense that scored 50 points or more 6 times this season, needing 40+ to win is nothing new, but they’ll need 2nd Team All-Mountain West QB Jordan Love to have another big game, and they have to commit to the run more than they did in the regular season finale at Boise State, when they ran the ball just 19 times for 62 yards. That responsibility will fall on running backs Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright, who combined for over 1700 yards on the season and had 69 combined yards without a touchdown against Boise.

#7. Army (7)

Army got a narrow win over Navy this Saturday in an ugly game that saw just 7 points scored in the first half, and 17 in the first 58 minutes. The knights tacked on a touchdown with 1:28 left in the game to essentially end it before Navy hit a field goal with 29 seconds left, but any shot at a miracle ended when Army recovered the ensuing onside kick and needed just one kneel down to end the game. For a game featuring two teams that both averaged around 300 rushing yards per game to only have 349 total rushing yards was disappointing, but Army will be happy to get their third straight win in the rivalry. They’ll move on to the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl against Houston on December 22nd. What looks tough for Army on paper might not be as bad as it looks with Houston not having possible top 5 pick in this year’s draft Ed Oliver to help the Cougars stop their run game, and no D’Eriq King which will likely limit what Houston will be able to do on offense. I’d expect a good amount more scoring in that game than their 17-10 victory over Navy this week, as Houston seems better prepared to score but likely less prepared to stop Army without their top defensive lineman and having fired their defensive coordinator.

#8. UAB (10)

The Blazers avenged their regular-season ending loss to Middle Tennessee by beating them in the much more important Conference USA Championship Game, to win their first conference championship in school history just 2 years after reviving the program. They’ll be playing in the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl against Northern Illinois on December 18th. The over-under for this game should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20, as this will be a battle of stout defenses, and teams that rely on their running games to slow the game down. While UAB was statistically better than NIU, the Huskies played one of the toughest schedules of any group of 5 team, with some metrics having them below just Boise State and Fresno State. NIU faced Iowa, Utah, and Florida State out of conference, as well as playing all 5 other MAC teams who are going to bowl games. So UAB, while they’ll be favored in the Boca Raton Bowl, had better be ready for a fight, especially in the trenches. NIU survived off of stopping the run all year, and UAB is going to have to keep MAC defensive player of the year Sutton Smith out of the backfield if they want to win their first bowl game in school history.

#9. Buffalo (8)

Buffalo should have won their second MAC title on Friday night. They fell apart in the 4th quarter, but more on that in the conference championship recaps. After losing the MAC Championship Game, they’ll be playing in the Dollar General Bowl on December 22nd against Troy. Statistically Buffalo outperformed the Trojans, as Troy tended to not blow teams out even when they should, which would lead to Buffalo being the favorite, but Troy’s defense is a bit better than the Bulls’, and Buffalo’s best win is probably at Temple back in September. To win the Dollar General Bowl, they’ll need consistency out of their offense, that just failed to score in the final 25 minutes of the MAC Championship, and managed just 17 points in a loss at Ohio two weeks before that. Tyree Jackson is going to have to have a more efficient game than his season average of 55% completions on his passes for their offense to be able to lead long meaningful drives and get the win.

#10. Temple (11)

Temple had another very good year, finishing second to UCF in the AAC East, and now they’ll play in the Walk-On’s Independence Bowl against Duke on December 27th. Duke has had defensive issues down the stretch, like giving up 54 to Pitt, 35 to UNC, and 59 at home against Wake Forest to close the season. The Owls will look to take advantage of this with their offense that averaged over 400 yards and 35 points per game but also gave up 23 turnovers without a single turnover-free game. Their opportunistic defense did force 27 turnovers on the year, one of the top 7 teams in the nation at forcing turnovers. So it seems the one guarantee in Temple games this year is there will be turnovers. I would expect the Independence Bowl to be a shootout, and the Owls will need QB Anthony Russo to take care of the ball and allow drives to develop to keep their defense rested and let Ryquell Armstead get touches in the red zone, as he’s piled up 13 rushing touchdowns so far on the year and could get a few more if things go well for Temple.

#11. Memphis (9)

The Tigers are also coming off a second half collapse in their conference championship game, although against a great team in UCF. The loss puts Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl against Wake Forest on December 22nd. Memphis will take one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 534.3 total yards per game, up against the porous defense of Wake Forest (465.3 yards per game allowed). However, there is still a reason Memphis was able to achieve bowl eligibility in the ACC, and they did it similarly to Memphis with a well balanced offense that averaged over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. The Demon Deacons don’t run the ball quite as well as Memphis, however, as the Tigers not only had Darrell Henderson rush for an AAC record 1909 yards, but had a second 1000 yard rusher in Patrick Taylor JR. They also have a thousand yard receiver in Damonte Coxie, showing just how prolific their offense has been this season. The Birmingham Bowl looks like it’s gonna be a shootout, and we should expect big games out of Henderson as well as QB Brady White in order for Memphis to win.

#12. Marshall (12)

Marshall may be fortunate that their coach, Doc Holliday, is in his early 60s, or else he may have been one of the more talked about coaches to go to a bigger school when they had 3 consecutive years of 10+ wins from 2013-15. This year, they’re at 8 wins for the second consecutive year, looking for 9 in the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl against USF on December 20th. Marshall may have a good shot at that 9th win as USF collapsed at the end of the year, losing their last 5 games after starting 7-0. The game presents an interesting battle as the Thundering Herd had a great run defense this year, allowing 104 rush yards per game and never giving up 100 rushing yards to one player in a game, while USF ran for 202 yards per game and relied even more on their run game at the end of the year as their QB Blake Barnett battled injuries. If Marshall can get wide receiver Tyre Brady (66 receptions, 914 yards, 9TD’s) going against the Bulls’ defense which has struggled down the stretch this year they should be able to get their 5th bowl win in the last 6 years and Doc Holliday will get to 6-0 in bowl games in his head coaching tenure at Marshall.

#13. Troy (14)

The Trojans fell a game short of having this year be quite as impressive as the last two, including being the first Sun Belt football team to ever be ranked in an AP Poll in 2016, but they still have a chance to get to 10 wins by winning the Dollar General Bowl against Buffalo on December 22nd. Troy will need sophomore QB Sawyer Smith to play smart and well against a Buffalo defense that has at times given up plays through the air. Smith strung together 3 good starts against South Alabama, Louisiana and Georgia Southern after being given the starting job due to Kaleb Barker getting injured, but threw for less than 100 yards against Texas State and threw 2 interceptions in the loss to App State. This offense is at its best when using the pass game to open up running lanes for B.J. Smith, rather than relying on him and the rest of the run game to set up passing opportunities. If Troy can win the turnover battle, there’s a good bet they’ll win, as they went 7-0 when winning the turnover battle and 1-3 when losing it (in their game against Georgia State both teams had 2 turnovers in the game and the Trojans won). Winning the Dollar General Bowl will only increase bigger schools interest in head coach Neal Brown, but it will get Troy their third consecutive year of at least 10 wins and a bowl victory, an impressive and important feat for the program.

#14. Houston (15)

It was an injury-riddled season that will leave Cougars fans wondering what could have been if D’eriq King and Ed Oliver could have stayed healthy. We’ll see how ready Clayton Tune is to lead their high-octane offense in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl against Army on December 22nd, where the Coogs will still be without Ed Oliver, as the projected top-10 draft pick focuses on getting himself healthy and ready for the draft. That could spell trouble for a defense that averaged allowing over 450 yards per game and hasn’t seen an offensive attack quite like Army’s. At least it’ll lower their pass yards allowed of 291 per game, but they couldn’t stop Memphis from running the ball all over them without Oliver in the game, and that doesn’t bode well for facing a team as committed to the run as Army. When Army played Oklahoma earlier this year, they held the Sooners to just 28 points, so simply assuming Houston’s offense will be able to carry them to a win would be a mistake. In order for Houston to win the Armed Forces Bowl, they’ll need to stack the box effectively, get some three and outs to allow their defense some breaks, and generate big plays on offense to get them down the field and score in a hurry.

#15. North Texas (On the Bubble)

North Texas just gets the nod here over Middle Tennessee and Ohio due to the fact that they beat an SEC team out of conference (Arkansas) and they have a better record than them. On top of that, a win in the New Mexico Bowl over Utah State on December 15th would give them 10 wins on the year and help them potentially be CUSA favorites heading into next year with a lot of offensive stars back. That list includes quarterback Mason Fine, who threw for just over 300 yards per game and had 27 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. They are 9 point underdogs to the Aggies, but that passing attack, complimented by their run game which averages just over 150 yards per game led by sophomore tailback DeAndre Torrey (942 yards, 14 TD’s), is going to be hard to slow down. There is a reason Utah State averaged 47.2 points per game this year, and the Mean Green defense that averaged just 21.8 points allowed hasn’t seen an offense as good as theirs. The New Mexico Bowl is going to be a shootout, but a few key stops from their defense, maybe a big turnover or two, and UNT could pull the upset.

 

Dropped Out:

Middle Tennessee (12)

Bubble Teams:

Ohio, Middle Tennessee, Northern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Florida International

 

Conference Championship Game Recaps

American Athletic Conference

My prediction: UCF 31, Memphis 24

Final score: UCF 56, Memphis 41

I underestimated the offenses in this one. When they played earlier this year it was 31-30 UCF and I thought this game would be more like that one, and as UCF quarterback Darriel Mack JR couldn’t hold onto the football in the first quarter, fumbling twice, and the Tigers had 3 60+ yard touchdown runs in the first 20 minutes of the game, it looked like the Knights were falling apart. When a fumble on a punt return gave Memphis another short field for a touchdown to make it 38-21 at the half, it was clear UCF needed a big change. In the second half, not only did UCF not give up any more 60-yard touchdowns, they didn’t give up any touchdowns at all. The offense that had gotten back on track in the second quarter simply hung onto the ball after 4 fumbles, 3 lost in the first half, and the Knights scored touchdowns on all 5 of their drives in the second half before kneeling to end the game. Once the nerves and game settled down, it was clear that UCF was the better team. In the first half, Memphis looked like the team people wanted to believe had a shot at UCF. In the second half, they looked like a team that had lost to Navy and Tulane, and whose only win over a team playing in a bowl game came without that team having their starting quarterback and their best player missed the second half. That’s the reality for Memphis this year, a talented but flawed team that couldn’t beat good teams away from home.

Conference USA

My prediction: UAB 24, Middle Tennessee 21

Final score: UAB 27, Middle Tennessee 25

I did a lot better with this prediction, as UAB’s offense made just enough plays (mostly in the second quarter) to win this game. Middle Tennessee’s Brent Stockstill couldn’t consistently be stopped by the Blazers defense, but in intercepting him twice and only allowing the Blue Raiders to convert 3 of their 15 third downs, they didn’t have to stop them all the time. UAB stuck to their strengths, rushing for over 200 yards while holding Middle Tennessee to under 100, and two of the three touchdown drives for the Blazers featured a pass play that went for at least 40 yards. Middle Tennessee got the ball inside the 10 yard line just before halftime but ultimately had to settle for a field goal, costing them what would have been very valuable points in a tight contest. A failed 2-point conversion by MTSU in the third quarter that would have tied the game at 24 also proved to be a huge difference in the game, as UAB would end up with a 2 point victory. The win creates an unbelievable storyline for UAB, who had never before won a conference championship game, and didn’t field a team in 2015 and 2016 before complaints and fundraising efforts combined to convince the university to resume playing football just last year, and the team won 8 games last year, which was a school record when you count only the years they played at the FBS level, and they made just their second bowl appearance in school history. This year, the Blazers have won 10 games for the first time ever and have a chance at their first bowl win.

Mid-American Conference

My prediction: Buffalo 31, Northern Illinois 20

Final score: Northern Illinois 30, Buffalo 29

I was feeling pretty good about my prediction when this game went into the 4th quarter at 29-17 in favor of Buffalo. Then Buffalo stopped doing anything successful, NIU scored two touchdowns, and finished off their wild comeback with a 30-29 win. Everything was going great for Buffalo, they were dominating the game and had just gotten an interception while leading 29-10. They got a first down to get away from their own end zone and had a 7 yard run on first down, looking to drive down the field and score to put the game away. Then they gave up sacks on 2nd and 3rd down to end up having to punt back from their own 5. Northern Illinois scored touchdowns on 3 of their next 4 drives with Buffalo’s offense unable to score in return. That was after the Bulls had scored on each of their first 5 drives of the game, but their defense was never able to get a 3 and out, and that caught up to them in the 4th quarter as the Huskies simply outlasted them. NIU quarterback Marcus Childers threw for a career high 300 yards and tied a career high for touchdowns with 4. He hadn’t thrown for more than 220 yards in any other game this year. For a team that had relied on strong defense all year, the 29 points Buffalo scored was the most NIU gave up in a win this year. It was also the most points Buffalo had scored in a loss, with their previous high being 17. Northern Illinois playing one of the toughest schedules of any group of 5 team may have payed off in preparing them to have to fight through this kind of game.

Mountain West Conference

My prediction: Boise State 28, Fresno State 27

Final score: Fresno State 19, Boise State 16 (OT)

Fresno State had thrown for 200 yards in every game this season. Boise had only failed to hit 200 yards through the air once, against San Diego State. So picking a relatively high scoring game between two teams with good passing attacks that averaged over 30 points per game each. Then both teams had season lows throwing the football, with Fresno getting 170 while Boise threw for just 125 yards. Broncos running back Alexander Mattison had 200 rush yards on 40 carries, but it wasn’t enough as a blocked extra point by the Bulldogs kept the game tied in the 4th quarter. Another defensive stop in a game full of them held Boise to a field goal in overtime, and Fresno State was able to punch the ball in for a walk-off touchdown. The snow played a big part in slowing the offenses, but the defenses deserve a lot of credit as well. They kept everything in front of them, as both teams had just one play go for more than 30 yards. And while bad weather always hurts the passing game, snow doesn’t cause fumbles. The three fumbles in the game were all generated by stingy defense, the first of which led to Fresno State’s only touchdown in regulation. Just two years ago, Fresno State was 1-11. Then Jeff Tedford got there. I wonder how long he has left there before a power conference (probably PAC-12) team snatches him away.

Sun Belt Conference

My prediction: Appalachian State 34, Louisiana 13

Final score: Appalachian State 30, Louisiana 19

The inaugural Sun Belt Conference Championship was no surprise, as the dominant Mountaineers continued their fantastic season with just the one slip up against Georgia Southern. Two teams that ran for more than they threw for this year really needed to as both teams struggled to throw the ball. Louisiana had a few more yards than App State, at 85 to the Mountaineers’ 75, but the Ragin’ Cajuns also threw two interceptions, while at least App State was turnover free. Both teams ran the ball for over 200 yards, so it was a fairly evenly matched game except for the turnovers. Louisiana’s problem was they just couldn’t finish drives. They got one touchdown while App State got in the end zone 3 times. Louisiana was looking for their first Sun Belt championship since winning a share of the title in 2013, when Appalachian State was starting to transition up from FCS. Meanwhile, App State won the Sun Belt in 2016 and won a share of the title last year before they started the conference championship game. Appalachian State, meanwhile, will have to see how good they can do without Scott Satterfield, who’s heading to Louisville to take over as their head coach. They haven’t head a head coach other than Satterfield since they’ve been in the FBS, so it will be interesting to see how much they can continue this success.

 

So the regular season is now over. In about a month, the bowl games will be over, a national champion will be crowned, and the final polls will be released. We will also be releasing one final ranking after bowl games, and then we’ll be off until a preseason poll next August. Bowl season is always a great time for college football fans, and I can’t wait to break down the teams that will be ranked here for the end of the year. Until next time,

CM

Stats and info courtesy of ESPN and sports-reference.com