Our top three Group of 5 teams from a week ago continued to dominate. Liberty won as 17-point underdogs at Virginia Tech, earning legitimacy points as VT was the first good team on Liberty’s schedule. Further down our rankings, Memphis and Louisiana struggled in what were supposed to be easier games for them. And what does the crushing blow to BYU mean for Boise State? Last week’s rankings can be viewed here, and here’s how we have the top Group of 5 teams ranked this week:
#1. Cincinnati Bearcats (Last week: 1)
Cincinnati continued to dominate on both sides of the ball to the tune of a 38-10 win over Houston on Saturday. Desmond Ridder continued to be very productive in the run game as well as his passing, going 17-27 for 162 yards and one touchdown through the air, adding 102 yards and three scores on 12 carries. Gerrid Doaks had a huge game on the ground as well, gaining 184 yards on just 16 carries with a touchdown. The defense disrupted Houston’s passing attack with four QB hurries, five pass breakups, a sack and an interception while holding Clayton Tune to 20-34 for 189 yards and no touchdowns. Cincy hosts ECU this week in an early senior day before ending the year with three games on the road. ECU comes into the game at 1-5, and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Bearcats a 94.2% chance to win.
#2. BYU Cougars (2)
BYU stayed at #2 but made the gap between themselves and the top spot much smaller with a blowout win at Boise State. The 34-point blowout marked the first time any team had beaten Boise State by that much since 2005, and only the third time since 1996, when Boise State transitioned up from FCS (then 1-AA), that the Broncos have lost that bad on the blue turf. The other two? The closing game of 1996 to Idaho, a 64-19 embarrassment that left the Broncos at 2-10, and the opening game of 1997, a 63-23 loss to Cal State Northridge. The Broncos went 4-7 that year, 6-5 the next, and have won at least eight games every year since. So BYU just gave Boise State, arguably the best small-conference football team this century, its worst loss in over 20 years. Zach Wilson was 21-27 for 359 yards and two touchdowns, while Boise State used its second- through fourth-string quarterbacks to combine for 23-38 for 249 yards, two touchdowns (both in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand) and an interception. Tyler Allgeier had 14 carries for 123 yards including an 86-yard touchdown on BYU’s second offensive play of the game. All BYU has left on its schedule are home games against North Alabama on Nov. 21 and San Diego State on Dec. 12. The book is nearly already closed on BYU’s season, but it has been the best season for the Cougars since at least the 1996 Cotton Bowl season, if not the 1984 national championship season.
#3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3)
The Chanticleers defense kept South Alabama out of the end zone while the offense managed two touchdowns in the first quarter before cooling off for a 23-6 win to move Coastal Carolina to 7-0 on the year and 5-0 in the Sun Belt. Grayson McCall continued to be very efficient through the air, completing 17 of 24 passes for 209 yards and a touchdown. Three different players, including McCall, had at least 60 rushing yards for Coastal, and the offense moved the ball well all game long. All three field goals were kicked from inside the 15 yard line, the Chanticleers had gone over 40 yards on a drive that ended in a fumble, and the game ended with Coastal less than 10 yards from the end zone. It was a three-score game that felt like even more of a blowout. Coastal has already traveled to Louisiana and hosted Georgia Southern with more tough games ahead of it starting this week at Troy, and hosting Appalachian State the following week should prove a challenge as well. The matchup with App State may well decide the Sun Belt-East division, with Coastal trying to win the conference in just its fourth year in the FBS.
#4. Liberty Flames (6)
Liberty is even newer to the FBS than Coastal, having transitioned up in 2018 and been eligible for a bowl game since just last year. Liberty went into its matchup at Virginia Tech as 17-point underdogs with an 11% chance to win according to FPI. It looked like the Flames had lost in one of the most heartbreaking ways imaginable: a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown with 0:00 on the clock, but the play was waved off by a VT timeout. Take two on the field goal: a 51-yarder through the uprights with 0:01 left on the clock, followed by a kickoff where Virginia Tech couldn’t find a miracle. Liberty moves to 7-0 in arguably the weirdest year ever to be an independent with four games left on the schedule. Malik Willis threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 108 yards and one more score. He also fumbled four times, but Liberty was able to overcome those mistakes and beat a good ACC team and give itself legitimacy to what has been a hard to believe season. It was a bold move for Liberty to move to the FBS without a conference to join, and one that received a lot of criticism. A bowl win in your first year of eligibility and a 7-0 start to year two is a pretty great start, and one Liberty will look to build off of to either grow its own fanbase to survive as an independent or push for a lucrative position in a conference in the coming years.
#5. Marshall Thundering Herd (5)
A team ranked #16 in the AP Poll shouldn’t be the fifth-best Group of 5 team in the country. But there isn’t supposed to be seven teams from the Group of 5 that are ranked, either, but that’s where things stand right now in this weird college football season. Marshall earned a 51-10 win over UMass this week, which seems great at first to get a 41-point win. When you realize it was game two of three on UMass’ schedule and the Thundering Herd went in as 44.5-point favorites, it becomes less impressive. Grant Wells was 21-30 for 228 yards and three touchdowns, Brenden Knox needed just 14 carries to log 118 yards and two touchdowns, and Marshall did just about everything right in this game. Now it’s back to CUSA play for Marshall against Middle Tennessee, and previously canceled games against Rice and FIU are two of seven games that the conference has been able to put back on the schedule following COVID-related postponements. This should keep Marshall busy to and likely through the Conference-USA championship game scheduled for December 19, having already beaten Florida Atlantic, with Charlotte standing as the only other 0- or 1-loss team in the CUSA-East. The Thundering Herd host Charlotte on November 21.
#6. SMU Mustangs (7)
#7. Boise State Broncos (4)
#8. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (9)
#9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8)
#10. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10)
#11. Army Black Knights (11)
#12. UCF Knights (14)
#13. San Jose State Spartans (On the Bubble)
#14. Central Michigan Chippewas (15)
#15. Nevada Wolfpack (OTB)
Dropped Out:
San Diego State (12), Memphis (13)
On the Bubble:
Memphis, Florida Atlantic, Toledo, Western Michigan, Georgia Southern
SMU and Tulsa square off in a huge AAC game as two of the three teams (along with Cincinnati) with 0 or 1 in-conference losses in the American. The winner of that game puts themselves in great position to meet Cincy in the American Conference Championship Game with Memphis, UCF or another team from the two-loss group needing a lot of help to get there. The only other game expected to be close (less than 7-point spread) among our top 15 is Army, who heads into its matchup at Tulane as four-point underdogs. Better matchups should be coming for our teams on the bubble, such as Toledo and Western Michigan squaring off on Wednesday night with the Broncos currently 2.5-point favorites. While the season just started for the Mountain West and MAC, we’re already getting close to the home stretch of the season with many teams having four or fewer games left to go. We’ll be adding conference outlooks next week.
Stats and info courtesy of ESPN and College Football at Sports-Reference.com
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