Group of 5 Power Rankings: Week 5

Western Michigan and Toledo played to one of the craziest finishes in college football in the last five years, Tulsa completed a comeback from down 21-0 and 17 points at halftime to beat SMU and get ranked for the first time since 2010 and we’re through another week of college football. SMU was our highest ranked team from last week to fall, so there were no major changes atop our rankings. Cincinnati has continued to push for College Football Playoff consideration while other Group of 5 teams hope for a Bearcats loss for their chance to get to a New Years Six game. To view last weeks rankings, click here. Here are this week’s rankings:

#1. Cincinnati Bearcats (Last Week: 1)

Cincinnati continues to make statement after statement as the Bearcats attempt to be the first Group of 5 team invited to the College Football Playoff. This week, that meant a 55-17 drubbing of ECU featuring Desmond Ridder having arguably his best game passing this year, throwing 24-31 for 327 yards and three touchdowns. Ridder added 75 rush yards and a touchdown as Cincy ran for 299 yards as a team. The defense forced four turnovers, including a 26-yard pick-six by Jarell White in the second quarter. Cincinnati travels to UCF on Saturday as the Knights have been looking better each week since back-to-back losses to Tulsa and Memphis.

#2. BYU Cougars (2)

BYU had the week off and has a date with North Alabama this Saturday, so there isn’t much to talk about for the Cougars right now. Zach Wilson has 2512 yards and 22 touchdowns on the season already, giving him a good chance to end the year with more than 3000 yards in just 10 games played and potentially 30 passing touchdowns following a bowl game. The fact that he’s done that while completing 75% of his passes with just two interceptions on the year has him as a fringe Heisman candidate. Ty Detmer stands as the Cougars’ only Heisman winner when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns in 1990.

#3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3)

The Chanticleers game against Troy was postponed due to coronairus issues in the Troy program, giving Coastal a welcome bye week before hosting perennial Sun Belt contender Appalachian State this week. Coastal Carolina has surrendered just 20 total points in its last three games and sits at 7-0 after going 5-7 both of the past two seasons. The Chanticleers will likely be heading to a bowl game for the first time in 2020, with fans being limited at best for the first opportunity for the school’s students, fans and alumni to celebrate such success. This matchup against App State will likely decide the Sun Belt-East, with both teams coming in undefeated with no other team having less than two losses in conference.

#4. Marshall Thundering Herd (5)

Marshall put up a 42-14 win over Middle Tennessee while wearing all black uniforms and helmets with the number 75 on them to honor the 50th anniversary of the plane crash that claimed the lives of 75 people in the Marshall football program. Grant Wells threw for 336 yards and five touchdowns on 25-37 passing, the defense forced three turnovers and Marshall rolled to 4-0 in conference. A win over Charlotte on Saturday coupled with a Florida Atlantic loss would secure a spot in the C-USA championship game for the Thundering Herd after going 6-2 in conference both of the past two years but failing to make a title game appearance.

#5. Liberty Flames (4)

Liberty picked up a 58-14 win over Western Carolina ahead of a matchup with North Carolina State this week where the Flames will be looking for a third win over an ACC team this year. Malik Willis threw for 306 yards, ran for 97 more and accounted for five touchdowns in the win. The defense forced three turnovers, providing a positive for a group that has tended to do just enough to allow the offense to get the win this year. NC State is similar to the talent level of Virginia Tech, or possibly slightly worse, so Liberty has a solid chance to get to 9-0.

#6. Boise State Broncos (7)

#7. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9)

#8. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (8)

#9. UCF Knights (12)

#10. SMU Mustangs (6)

#11. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10)

#12. San Jose State (13)

#13. Central Michigan Chippewas (14)

#14. Nevada Wolfpack (15)

#15. Florida Atlantic Owls (On the Bubble)

Dropped Out:

Army (11)

On the Bubble:

Western Michigan, Army, Memphis, Georgia Southern, Buffalo

Conference Races

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati and Tulsa are on a collision course for the AAC title, with the Bearcats needing to win any two of its last three games to earn a spot in the title game while three wins in four games (if the Tulsa-Navy game gets rescheduled) would clinch a spot for the Golden Hurricane. ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t have a predictor to reach the championship game since the AAC isn’t using divisions this year, but Cincy has far and away the best odds of winning the conference, but UCF is actually in second place as FPI views the Knights as a stronger team than Tulsa.

FPI odds to win conference:

Cincinnati: 61.4 %

UCF: 22.9%

Tulsa: 13.0 %

Conference-USA

FPI has Marshall meeting UAB as the most likely matchup for the C-USA championship game with the Thundering Herd at 4-0 in the East and the Blazers at 2-1 currently in the West. The Blazers cancelled games for this week and next due to coronavirus issues, while Rice has still only played two conference games as other teams have played as many as five. At this point, UAB can play no more than six conference games before the championship and Rice can play no more than five. That leaves UTSA, currently sitting at 3-2 in conference, also having a chance to reach the title game.

FPI odds to win conference (division):

Marshall: 77.7% (98.0%)

UAB: 17.7% (66.8%)

Rice: 1.3% (11.0%)

UTSA: 1.3% (14.7%)

Mid-American Conference

It’s too early to call this race with the MAC having played two of six games thus far, but the picture should get much clearer soon, especially in the West Division with Western Michigan traveling to Central Michigan in a battle of 2-0 teams. Buffalo and Kent State should both get to 3-0 this week in the East, while the Ohio-Miami (OH) cancellation throws a wrench into potential tiebreakers.

FPI odds to win conference (division):

Buffalo: 48.3% (77.8%)

Central Michigan: 21.0% (46.2%)

Western Michigan: 19.3% (44.6%)

Kent State: 7.7% (19.4%)

Mountain West Conference

Another conference going without divisions for 2020 only is the Mountain West, where it’s Boise State vs the field right now. Nevada and San Jose State are both out to 4-0 starts, while FPI likes San Diego State to have the best chance out of teams currently at 3-1. San Jose State is the only team currently above .500 in conference on Boise State’s schedule. This is both a benefit to the Broncos in the form of a weak schedule as well as a diminishing factor in the Spartans’ chances of making it to the title game.

FPI odds to win conference:

Boise State: 54.8%

San Jose State: 16.5%

Nevada: 13.7%

San Diego State: 11.2%

Sun Belt

Louisiana’s win over South Alabama widened the gap in the Sun Belt-West to the Ragin’ Cajuns at 5-1 to the Jaguars at 2-3 as the next best team, clinching a spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game for Louisiana, the first FBS team to do so in 2020. The East division might be decided this weekend when Coastal Carolina (5-0) hosts Appalachian State (4-0). A Chanticleers win finalizes the Sun Belt title game while an App State win would mean the Mountaineers, Chanticleers and even theoretically Georgia Southern would have a chance to win the East.

FPI odds to win conference (division):

Louisiana: 39.9% (100%)

Coastal Carolina: 37.3% (62.3%)

Appalachian State: 22.8% (37.4%)

Stats and info courtesy of ESPN and College Football at Sports-Reference.com.

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