BYU traveled to Coastal Carolina following Liberty’s inability to play the Chanticleers due to COVID-19 issues and Coastal earned a signature win over the Cougars. Marshall got shut out by Rice in an embarrassing defeat in Conference-USA play, and most conference championship game spots have been decided as we enter the final week of the regular season. Weekly rankings from this year can be found here, and this week’s rankings are below:

#1. Cincinnati Bearcats (last week: 1)

Cincinnati got to sit around and watch its playoff hopes grow again with a bye week and the cancellation of the Ohio State-Michigan game that puts the Buckeyes in danger of not playing in the Big Ten championship game. Cincinnati’s regular season contest against Tulsa has also been canceled as the Bearcats are dealing with COVID-19 issues, but the conference championship game is still set to take place on December 19. That contest will most likely take place in Cincy, as the Bearcats have the advantage over Tulsa in points against common opponents or overall in conference as both teams went 6-0 in AAC play. The Bearcats are still a longshot to make the playoff, likely needing Notre Dame to beat Clemson in the ACC title game, Alabama to win the SEC championship and for the committee to decide Cincy’s resume is better than that of Texas A&M, which would be a surprise given that the Aggies were #5 in last week’s Playoff poll and the Bearcats were #7. But TAMU struggled with a mediocre Auburn team this weekend, and if Cincy earns style points in a win over Tulsa it could happen.

#2. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3)

Coastal Carolina earned a signature win over BYU, stopping the Cougars on the one-yard line with no time left on the clock for one of the best finishes to a college football game this season. ESPN tragically only aired the game on ESPNU even with Gameday in Conway, South Carolina for the game, but those that watched were treated to an outstanding defensive performance from the Chanticleers. The Cougars came in averaging 47.6 points per game and 535.8 yards per game led by Heisman candidate Zach Wilson, but Coastal held them to 405 yards, turned them over twice and allowed just 17 points. The defense got after Wilson, only sacking him once but also earning five QB hurries and forcing three fumbles (one by Wilson) and an interception. The defense also provided a fourth down stop after the Chanticleers’ only turnover of the day, giving the ball back to the offense near midfield and leading to a short touchdown drive. CJ Marable led the offense with 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Coastal Carolina travels to Troy this week for its regular season finale before hosting Louisiana for the Sun Belt title.

#3. BYU Cougars (2)

The Cougars saw the opportunity to play a ranked Coastal Carolina team as a chance to ensure a New Years Six bowl game with a win and possibly even move into the playoff discussion. Instead, The Cougars found its offense stifled and came up a yard short from what would have been its biggest win of the year. BYU had been held under 40 just once this year, a 27-20 victory over UTSA that represented the Cougars’ only struggle in 2020. Every other game had been a victory by a minimum of 17 points until the trip to Coastal changed the course of BYU’s season. Instead of the best season since at least the 1996 team that won the Cotton Bowl and maybe even the best since the 1984 championship team, the Cougars will have to settle for a year that feels more like the four consecutive seasons ranked and playing in the Las Vegas Bowl from 2006-’09. Nonetheless, BYU is very likely to finish the season ranked for the first time in a decade, a significant achievement for a program that needs more seasons like this to stay nationally relevant as an independent.

#4. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5)

Tulsa beat Navy, 19-6, to secure its spot in the AAC title game against Cincinnati in two weeks, assuming the Bearcats can clear up the current COVID-19 issues that led to the cancellation of their game this week. Tulsa was able to beat the Midshipmen in spite of less than 300 offensive yards and just one touchdown as the defense completely shut down Navy’s option attack. Quarterback Zach Smith was just 10-25 passing for 168 yards, but 66 of those yards came on a touchdown pass to Josh Johnson on a dangerous throw that was nearly intercepted on a third-and-13 play late in the third quarter. That touchdown gave Tulsa the lead, Zack Long added two more field goals in the fourth quarter to finish the game 4-4 including hitting his first career 40+ yard field goal attempt, a 48-yard kick in the second quarter, and the Golden Hurricane got the win. The defense held Navy to less than 2.5 yards per carry, and will need to have a similarly stifling performance against Cincinnati if Tulsa is to have a shot at the American Conference title. Having another performance like the 12-TFL day this defense had will be a much harder task against a bigger, stronger Cincy offensive line.

#5. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (8)

Snaps, and the fear of snaps from the Louisiana coaching staff, cost the Ragin’ Cajuns at least five points on Friday night and Louisiana still pulled off a 24-21 win over Appalachian State. It was a miserable game for long snapper Paul Boudreaux, a name that Louisiana and App State fans were likely not very familiar with ahead of the contest. A bad snap on an extra-point attempt in the second quarter cost the Ragin’ Cajuns one point, though it was a point later recovered by a two-point conversion in the third quarter. That came after two bad snaps on punts led to App State having a short field twice on offense, leading to a touchdown and a missed field goal. Elijah Mitchell ran for 95 yards while Trey Ragas was the drive finisher for the Ragin’ Cajuns, finding the end zone twice on his 12 carries and once on a reception from Levi Lewis, who struggled throwing the football but ran for 77 yards. Louisiana has an opportunity to be Sun Belt champs and have beaten a team that could be Big 12 champs in Iowa State. In spite of some miserable individual performances, the Ragin’ Cajuns earned the first win over App State in program history. Louisiana has this week off to prepare for its second contest of the year against Coastal Carolina.

#6. Boise State Broncos (6)

#7. Liberty Flames (7)

#8. Buffalo Bulls (9)

#9. Marshall Thundering Herd (3)

#10. San Jose State Spartans (12)

#11. UCF Knights (11)

#12. Nevada Wolfpack (14)

#13. Army Black Knights (On the Bubble)

#14. Western Michigan Broncos (10)

#15. Ball State Cardinals (NR)

Dropped Out:

Florida Atlantic (13), Appalachian State (15)

On the Bubble:

Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Memphis

Conference Races

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati and Tulsa have locked up spots in the championship game, and ESPN’s Football Power Index, along with most analysts, likes the Bearcats significantly more. Cincinnati has only been challenged by UCF in the conference, while Tulsa has played in four one-score games out of its six AAC matches. The game is in jeopardy due to positive COVID-19 cases in the Bearcats program causing the regular season matchup between the two schools to be canceled.

FPI odds to win conference:

Cincinnati: 80.1%

Tulsa: 19.9%

Conference-USA

Both divisions are still up for grabs with just one game remaining on the regular season schedule. Marshall could have wrapped up the East division with a win over Rice, but left the door open for Florida Atlantic, who needs a win and a Marshall loss to get to the championship game. UAB takes on Rice this Saturday with a chance to secure the West division, but if the Owls are able to pull off another upset then UTSA will make its way to the title game.

FPI odds to win conference (division):

Marshall: 65.8% (92.7%)

UAB: 26.4% (70.0%)

UTSA: 4.3% (30.0%)

Florida Atlantic: 3.5% (7.3%)

Mid-American Conference

Buffalo secured the East division by the cancellation of its game against Ohio, and a Ball State win over Central Michigan set up a Western Michigan-Ball state matchup for the West division title this Saturday in Muncie, Indiana. Western Michigan suffered a disappointing loss to Eastern Michigan last week while Buffalo got ranked by the AP Poll for the first time in school history. FPI likes Buffalo over WMU or Ball State.

FPI odds to win conference (division):

Buffalo: 74.0% (100%)

Ball State: 14.1% (54.5%)

Western Michigan: 11.9% (45.5%)

Mountain West Conference

There are still three teams that could play in any combination in the Mountain West title game in two weeks. Boise State will be in with a win or Nevada loss, while San Jose State and Nevada both need to win to make the championship game. If Nevada beats San Jose State and Boise State loses to Wyoming, then Nevada and San Jose State would square off once again with the conference title on the line. FPI likes Boise State over the Wolfpack and the Spartans, and gives the Broncos a 67.1% chance of beating Wyoming to make the championship game regardless of how the Nevada-SJSU game goes.

FPI odds to win conference:

Boise State: 65.7%

San Jose State: 20.0%

Nevada Wolfpack: 14.4%

Sun Belt Conference

Coastal Carolina and Louisiana have had the divisions wrapped up heading into the week, and both added a key win to their resume’s this week. FPI still likes the Chanticleers more, but this figures to be a close matchup just like it was in the regular season, when Coastal won, 30-27.

FPI odds to win conference:

Coastal Carolina: 62.1%

Louisiana: 37.9%

Stats and info from ESPN and College Football at Sports-Reference.com.