It’s here. Conference titles are on the line this weekend as coaching changes and bowl game announcements swirl around to ensure attention stays on college football outside the championship fights. Oh, and Buffalo-Akron and New Mexico State-Valparaiso, just for fun. With the big battles staring us in the face, here’s this week’s Group of 5 rankings, plus conference championship game predictions below.
#1. Tulane Green Wave (Last Week: 2)
Tulane proved they were the team to beat with a massive 27-24 win at Cincinnati Friday to punch its ticket to the AAC title game and earn the right to host it. This game felt like an old-fashioned throwdown, with both teams rushing for over 200 yards with under 170 passing, and five of six touchdowns in the game coming on the ground. Tyjae Spears led the way for the Green Wave, running for 181 yards on 35 carries with two scores. Dorian Williams made a big-time interception that led to a Tulane touchdown in the third quarter, and the Green Wave defense stood tall at the end of the game by forcing the Bearcats backward on both of their final two drives. With the win, Tulane reaches 10 wins in a season for the first time since 1998, and they’re looking to win their first conference championship in the same span when they host UCF next week. The AAC Championship Game will kick off at 4 p.m. EST in Yulman Stadium on Saturday.
#2. Troy Trojans (4)
Troy is about one hail mary away from being on an 11-game win streak and having a chance at a trip to the Cotton Bowl right now. The CFP committee deciding that UCF losing to Navy and struggling to contain USF basically doesn’t matter didn’t help the Trojans’ cause either. Troy actually went into the fourth quarter of last Saturday’s game at Arkansas State trailing 19-14, but Kimani Vidal punched in three touchdowns as the Trojans exploded for 34 points in the final frame to make the struggles look minor in a 48-19 win. Vidal finished the game with 208 rush yards and four scores, single-handedly outrushing the Red Wolves by 170 yards. Reddy Steward had a pair of interceptions, one of which he returned 67 yards for a touchdown amidst the fourth-quarter outburst, to highlight Troy’s defensive effort in the Sun Belt West-clinching victory. Troy also earned the right to host the Sun Belt title game next week. The Trojans welcome in Coastal Carolina, as Chants head coach Jamey Chadwell has rumors of departing for Liberty running through the media, Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EST to decide the championship.
#3. UTSA Roadrunners (6)
While Troy is out of the running for the Cotton Bowl by a narrow margin, UTSA might have an even narrower margin for not being in the conversation for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion: a two-point conversion attempt in overtime. If the Roadrunners had beaten Houston in their season-opener, they might be 11-1 now and vying for the top spot. But UTSA wasn’t without drama in getting to 10 wins after already having the host position in the CUSA Championship Game locked up going into last week’s season finale against UTEP. The Roadrunners trailed 24-0 in the second quarter, and when the Miners scored on their first possession of the third it was 31-14. But UTSA scored the final 20 points in the game, tying it 31-31 on the final play of the third quarter as Frank Harris threw his third touchdown pass, and winning it on Jared Sackett’s 28-yard field goal with four seconds to play. Harris finished the game with 382 yards passing as Tykee Ogle-Kellogg and Zakhari Franklin both had over 100 yards and a score receiving. Dadrian Taylor’s 73-yard pick-six late in the second quarter was instrumental in the Roadrunners’ comeback as well. UTSA will move on to host North Texas in the Alamodome on Friday night for the Conference-USA championship. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST.
#4. South Alabama Jaguars (5)
South Alabama comes in as our highest-ranked team not playing in a conference championship game as they are one of 14 FBS teams to win at least 10 regular-season games and one of just five teams with that many wins not heading to a conference championship game. The other four reside in the SEC (Alabama, Tennessee) and Big Ten East (Ohio State, Penn State). The Jaguars also got a scare this week, trailing three-win Old Dominion 20-13 at halftime before rallying for a 27-20 win. South Alabama ran for over 200 yards, with three different backs rushing for at least 40, but all three touchdowns were through the air as Carter Bradley upped his season total to 25 TD passes. Like the teams above, South Alabama was also very close to having a Cotton Bowl case, as a 10-6 loss to Troy stood between them and reaching the Sun Belt Championship Game at 11-1 with their only loss being a one-point affair at UCLA that came down to a last-second field goal by the Bruins. As it is, this year is South Alabama’s first winning more than six games as an FBS team, they’ll be heading to their first bowl game since 2016 and their third ever, and seeking the first bowl win in school history.
#5. UCF Knights (7)
The Knights knew exactly what was at stake Saturday night in Raymond James Stadium against rival USF: win and you go to the AAC Championship Game, where a victory all but guarantees you a Cotton Bowl bid. Lose, and you go home and wait on a bowl announcement like everyone else. And for the first 36 minutes or so, they played like it. The Knights jumped out to a 28-0 lead and held a 31-7 advantage after converting on a field goal with 9:15 left in the third quarter. Then they gave up three consecutive touchdowns and two two-point conversions (with a third attempt failed) to make it 31-29 before the quarter expired. UCF struck back with a six-minute touchdown drive to restore a two-score lead, then promptly allowed the Bulls to score a field goal and another touchdown to take a 39-38 lead. After the Knights fumbled on their ensuing drive, their third lost fumble of the second half, a single first down for USF would have forced the Knights to burn their timeouts and have no more than two minutes remaining to try to answer. Instead, the Bulls went three-and-out, UCF drove and scored a touchdown (and two-point conversion), and USF couldn’t convert a hail mary on the last play. The Knights escaped, and set a date with Tulane on Saturday to decide the AAC title. UCF, having already won at Yulman once this season, heads back there for a 4 p.m. EST kickoff in the championship matchup.
#6. Cincinnati Bearcats (1)
#7. Boise State Broncos (8)
#8. Air Force Falcons (9)
#9. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (3)
#10. Ohio Bobcats (10)
#11. James Madison Dukes (11)
#12. Fresno State Bulldogs (13)
#13. Marshall Thundering Herd (On the Bubble)
#14. BYU Cougars (OTB)
#15. San José State Spartans (NR)
Dropped Out
Houston (12), Liberty (14), Toledo (15)
On the Bubble
North Texas, Toledo, SMU, Western Kentucky
Conference Championship Game Predictions
American Athletic Conference: UCF at Tulane
I expect this to be a tight game and come down to who makes more big plays in the fourth quarter. I think Tulane’s defense makes a big play late to stop a potential game-winning drive by UCF and the Green Wave to head to the Cotton Bowl.
Final Score: Tulane 34, UCF 28
Conference-USA: North Texas at UTSA
UTSA won the first matchup between these two this year, 31-27. The Roadrunners have scored at least 30 points in every game this season, and I don’t think North Texas has the firepower to keep up.
Final Score: UTSA 35, North Texas 24
Mid-American Conference: Ohio vs Toledo in Detroit
Ohio enters the game on a seven-game winning streak but with MAC Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke out with injury. Toledo lost their last two games after securing the MAC West early. I think Ohio finds a way to win a dogfight.
Final Score: Ohio 21, Toledo 17
Mountain West: Fresno State at Boise State
For the fourth time, and first since 2018, the Mountain West Championship Game is Fresno at Boise. I expect this game to be a battle of two offenses that are capable of putting up big numbers, if inconsistently. I’ve got freshman Taylen Green and Boise State earning a statement win over veteran Jake Haener and Fresno State.
Final Score: Boise State 40, Fresno State 37
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina at Troy
Coastal Carolina has had consistency issues that jumped off the page in their two losses, while Troy has a stifling defense that hasn’t surrendered 20 points since October 1. I see Troy winning a low-scoring affair.
Final Score: Troy 24, Coastal Carolina 16
Murphy's Field 
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